Published On: Tue, May 26th, 2015

Fed Rate Hike Could Cause Global Market Volatility

Stanley Fischer

Stanley Fischer has said economic observers should focus on the long term basis of interest rates and not when the increase will be imposed.

When the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates, it should consider the effects on global economies and must expect some periods of market volatility following a hike, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday.

“In the normalizing of its policy, just as when loosening policy, the Federal Reserve will take account of how its actions affect the global economy,” Stanley Fischer said in Israel. “The actual raising of policy rates could trigger further bouts of volatility, but my best estimate is that the normalization of our policy should prove manageable for the emerging market economies.”

Fischer believes economic observers must focus on where interest rates are expected to go over longer periods instead of when the first rate rise will come. Some Fed economists expect rates to reach 3.25% to 4% in just three to four years.

“There is so much importance given to the first move. But I think it’s misleading,” said Mr. Fischer during a speech at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, outside Tel Aviv. Mr. Fischer served as the chief of Israel’s central bank prior to taking the role of the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman.

He said the increases are not to be similar to the rates imposed from 2004 to 2006 which were relatively quick. Fed Chair Janet Yellen signalled on Friday that the U.S. central bank is planning to increase rates this year, despite low inflation and a slow improving job market. Both Yellen and Fischer have expressed the importance of gradual increases to avoid disrupting world markets.

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