Published On: Sun, May 24th, 2015

Federal Reserve Won’t Take Long To Raise Rates: Janet Yellen

Yellen

Following Janet Yellen’s latest words a rate hike looks likely towards the end of this year.

The market could upset the applecart in the coming weeks with the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates this year whilst major indexes near records, after an extended period of low volatility and steady gains favoring US investors.

If the Fed raises rates, it will mark the first hike since 2006 and end a six-year span of near-zero interest rates that helped the stock market climb to new highs.

Speaking in Providence, Rhode Island, Janet Yellen said the Fed will likely raise its key interest rate this year, probably gradually for the first time in almost a decade. The Fed chair, considered quite cautious by economists, looked confident in her statement.

The Federal Reserve won’t take long to raise rates. Delayed action would risk “overheating the economy,” said Yellen, “If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target.”

The Fed Chair was concerned over weak job gains and flat growth of the economy, as she said, “in my judgement we are not there yet”, suggesting the rare chance of a rate hike in June.

The unemployment rate is down to 5.4% from its 2010 peak at 10%. America is still gaining jobs, not losing them, albeit at a slower pace now than last year.

The economy’s upcoming summer will matter in the Fed’s decision to hold or hike rates. Yellen expressed disappointment about economic progress so far in 2015 while expecting it to gain momentum later this year.

“A number of economic headwinds have slowed the recovery, and to some extent, they continue to influence the outlook,” Yellen said.

Although the Fed Chair believes that a rate hike will come this year, it is highly unlikely to happen this June as speculated earlier. The economic slowdown has changed many economists’ expectation for a rate hike.

Yellen’s tone indicates a high chance of a rate hike in September similar to most economists’ expectations. Whilst traders do not believe in it; market indicators put the first hike near the end of this year.

Collin Martin, director of fixed income at Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York said “we are of the camp that this rate cycle will be low and slow. The remarks from Yellen confirmed that.”

According to the Bespoke Investment Group in Harrison, New York, in the first three months after the Fed raises rates following a year of keeping them steady, they believe the S&P 500 will fall an average of 2.27 percent.

“We are a little overvalued, even with interest rates low,” said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York. “There could be some choppy seas ahead, especially if oil prices stay low or the dollar remains strong.”

The two most important things are the timing of the first hike and the amount it be raised by. Will the Fed inject a hike in September with more of it in the subsequent months? And if so, to what magnitude? A rate hike would invariably indicate that the Fed sees good health in the US economy.

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